2020年1月2日 星期四

On Politics: The Only Safe Bet in 2020

Brace yourselves for the political hurricane that’s about to make landfall.
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By Lisa Lerer

Politics Newsletter Writer

Hi. Welcome to On Politics, your guide to the day in national politics. I’m Lisa Lerer, your host.

Tim Lahan

Last New Year’s Eve, one of my politically curious friends made a little prediction: By the end of 2019, Joe Biden would be the Democratic front-runner.

Because we’re really, really cool people, he quickly wrote up his forecast in the dorkiest possible way — a Google Calendar item complete with a reminder so he could correctly time his expected gloating for 11:30 p.m. on Dec. 31, 2019.

When that alert popped up on Tuesday night, it ignited a bit of a debate.

Sure, Mr. Biden leads most national polls. But we don’t hold a national primary. In Iowa and New Hampshire — those two crucial early-voting states — Mr. Biden is lagging behind. Oh, and the last Democratic Party-approved poll of an early-voting state was conducted before Thanksgiving, so any numbers on the race are totally out of date anyhow. Fun!

The whole discussion felt emblematic of the political year we’re entering. From Congress to the campaign trail, our politics are profoundly unsettled.

As it has for weeks, the Democratic race remains crowded and confusing, continuing to lack a candidate who truly captures the imagination of a wide cross-section of primary voters.


In Congress, it’s unclear how — or even whether — impeachment will proceed. And in the White House, a polarizing and unpredictable president continues to flout political norms and inflame the deeply divided country.

Nothing feels predictable.

Just take this week’s financial announcements about the final quarter of 2019. Senator Bernie Sanders, a 78-year-old who had a heart attack just three months ago, raised the eye-popping sum of $34.5 million. Pete Buttigieg — a former mayor whose previous political experience consists of running a city of about 100,000 people — outraised Mr. Biden, a former vice president. Andrew Yang, an entrepreneur running on the slogan “MATH,” brought in $16.5 million, as Julián Castro, a former big-city mayor and cabinet secretary, dropped out of the race, lacking the funds to continue.

And we don’t even have a total price tag for former Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg of New York, a billionaire who has already spent more money than all his rivals combined on advertising. If he continues at his current pace, he’ll spend about as much as what President Barack Obama’s campaign spent on advertising during the entire 2012 election — and that’s before Super Tuesday on March 3.


But, frankly, this is a moment that feels bigger than tracking polls or fourth-quarter Federal Election Commission filings. As my colleague Peter Baker pointed out before the holidays, impeachments historically come at times of profound national transition, periods in history when a divided country is questioning the very fundamentals of its political system.

This shouldn’t be surprising to regular readers of this newsletter.

From international relations to domestic cultural politics, the future of the county feels unsettled and uncertain to many Americans.

Over the past year, issues that were never particularly heated — like, say, plastic straws — emerged as contentious cultural flash points. Violent hate crimes and assaults driven by personal bias rose, as the messages of white supremacists entered the mainstream of our political discourse. And, increasingly, it seems as if the two parties live in separate political worlds, with completely different narratives and “alternative facts.”


So how do you understand our politics in a hyperpolarized period like this, on the cusp of a year certain to bring more outrage, divisiveness and surprises?

For what it’s worth, my New Year’s resolution is to approach it all with humility, wariness of the conventional wisdom, and a very, very strong constitution. But in case that fails, I’m stocking up on bourbon, dark chocolate and CBD oil.

I’d suggest you do the same.

Drop us a line!

We want to hear from our readers. Have a question? We’ll try to answer it. Have a comment? We’re all ears. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.

Things are heating up in Iowa

Franziska Barczyk

Our colleague Sydney Ember, who has been living in Iowa to cover the run-up to the first nominating contest, has been keeping her eye on the calendar. Here’s her first dispatch of 2020 for On Politics, from Des Moines:

One month left.

Come Friday, there will be just 31 days until the Iowa caucuses. That still seems like an eternity to me, but here in Iowa, it’s the final countdown. After an exhausting few months of chasing candidates around the state, it finally — finally! — feels like things are really getting going.

Though candidates left Iowans in peace for a couple of days last week to celebrate the holidays, they have returned in full force. Since Christmas, Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren — the top four candidates in Iowa, according to the most recent polls — all completed Iowa swings. All except Mr. Buttigieg will be back this weekend.

And at their campaign events, there is a new urgency.

“I remember the first few times I came through and heard things like: ‘Well, you’re in my top seven, let’s see how you do. I want to see you speak six more times and then we’ll see,’” Mr. Buttigieg said at a packed event in West Des Moines last weekend. “I can tell now that we’re getting to decision time.”

“We’re getting down to the short strokes,” Ms. Warren told the crowd at her own event in Des Moines.

Mr. Sanders, speaking at a New Year’s Eve event in Des Moines, earnestly reminded Iowans that they “set the pace for this entire election system.”

Iowans are also noting the change in energy.

“Oh, it’s picking up,” said Zach Newbrough, 36, who came to see Mr. Sanders speak in Winterset this week and is deciding between Mr. Sanders and Mr. Buttigieg. “It’s like every day, there’s somebody around.”

Iowans famously take their time deciding which candidate they will support on caucus night. There is even a common refrain, “Iowa breaks late.” Especially this year, that seems right: When I talk to most Democrats here, they still often list several candidates they like, before vowing to vote for the party’s eventual nominee because what they care about above all is defeating President Trump.

Complicating matters, no candidate has managed to break away from the other leaders. That has left many Iowans to anxiously assess the merits and pitfalls of each White House hopeful as they weigh which candidates they want to support versus which ones they think can beat Mr. Trump in the general election.

This all could make for an interesting final month, especially if some of the top candidates are stuck in Washington for Mr. Trump’s impeachment trial in the Senate.

All I know for sure is that the intensity on the ground can only increase until Feb. 3 … just one month away.

… Seriously

It’s not just koalas: Countless animals, perhaps in the hundreds of millions, have been killed in Australia’s devastating wildfires since September, and entire species of plants and animals may have been wiped out.

“We’re not getting that many animals coming into our care. So our concern is that they don’t come into care because they’re not there anymore, basically,” a rescuer at Wildlife Information, Rescue and Education Services told Reuters.

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Thanks for reading. On Politics is your guide to the political news cycle, delivering clarity from the chaos.

Is there anything you think we’re missing? Anything you want to see more of? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.

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