2020年5月13日 星期三

On Tech: Where is my driverless car?

The technology is tricky, and driverless cars may never fix all the problems we hoped they would.

Where is my driverless car?

Nicolas Ortega

The pandemic has accelerated some long-predicted technology habits like telemedicine and online grocery shopping. But driverless car technology might be kicked into reverse.

The ubiquitous computer-driven car that seemed just around the corner for a decade is now further away than ever.

I want driverless cars to work. They could spare us a lot of needless death. But there are big obstacles to the technology, including that it doesn’t work so well (yet), threatens to bankrupt all but the richest companies that try it and might never solve many of the problems we hoped it would address.

The struggles of robot cars make me wonder if it’s possible to shoot for the moon with technology without shooting ourselves in the foot by hoping for magic.

We can blame the pandemic for some of the struggles. Testing of many computer-controlled cars is on pause to protect human minders from the coronavirus, and many companies can’t afford to splurge now on costly technology, the New York Times reporters Cade Metz and Erin Griffith wrote on Tuesday.

This is slowing driverless cars’ development, but as my colleagues wrote, the problems are bigger. We can’t blame the coronavirus for everything. The technology needed to make the cars safe is even harder to master than companies thought — and the problems the tech is trying to fix are even bigger.

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I remember exactly where I was when I read The Times’s first reveal of Google’s computer-piloted cars 10 year ago. Driverless cars felt like a starry, life-saving advance that encapsulated the best of what tech can do.

The optimism slowly gave way to the reality of the challenge: A self-driving car must “read” and predict what’s happening around it and respond in fractions of a second. Compared to airplanes on autopilot, vehicles on the road must digest far more information from other cars and people acting unpredictably. Any slip could mean someone dies.

That has confined computer-piloted cars mostly to relatively uncomplicated tasks like driving people around gated retirement communities, or rote rides in defined areas — and the cars are grounded if there are dust storms or rain.

That’s still an incredible achievement, and more advances are coming. But driverless cars need to be everywhere to make us truly safer and achieve other hoped-for societal benefits.

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Even most driverless car optimists now say the technology won’t be ready for mainstream use and affordable for many more years.

An even more sobering thought is that driverless cars might make some problems we want them to solve — like traffic, sprawl and air pollution — even worse. If driverless cars quadruple the capacity of highway lanes, but people travel many more miles when they don’t have to do the driving, then traffic may not get better.

We want ambitious technology that can really change the world. But sometimes I worry that optimism can make us less likely to confront the reality of congestion, air pollution and road safety. My colleague Farhad Manjoo, writing about a different issue, reached a similar conclusion. Technology can’t fix everything. People are going to have to make hard choices to solve hard problems.

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Say bye to your cheap(-ish) burritos

Here’s the dirty secret of delivering meals to our door: It costs a fortune, and almost everyone involved in getting food to our homes hates it.

For years, many restaurants have gritted their teeth and worked with food delivery companies like Uber Eats and DoorDash, hoping they’d get enough new customers to make the fees they pay worthwhile.

The food delivery companies mostly lost money on each order, but they hoped they eventually could stop the bleeding. (Some of them also said they believed that deliveries with driverless vehicles would fix their losses, but, ahem. See above.)

The true cost of food delivery is a brutal economic reality that most of us never consider, unless we investigate the hidden markups on our cheeseburger dinners.

But now it gets interesting. My colleagues Mike Isaac and Kate Conger wrote on Tuesday about the food ordering companies Uber and Grubhub possibly merging. I’ll let my friends at the DealBook newsletter give you the details.

What you need to know is the food delivery companies likely believe their future depends on mushing together to get big and muscular enough to raise prices for restaurants and for diners like us.

Food delivery is here to stay, probably. We’ll all just have to pay more for it.

Before we go …

  • Ready the troops for a misinformation war: My colleague Kevin Roose worries that anti-vaccine activists will spin reasonable concerns about a potential coronavirus vaccine “into widespread, unfounded fears about its safety.” He says that public health officials, internet companies and all of us must lay the groundwork now to restore people’s faith in medicine, stop bogus information from spreading and reach loved ones who are susceptible to anti-vaccine propaganda.
  • Hooray, innovation in fraud! Brian X. Chen, The Times’s consumer technology writer, has practical advice to spot and stop pandemic-related scams, which are now everywhere.
  • Fighting technology surveillance, with technology: Tech-savvy Indians are finding workarounds to what they believe are their government’s invasive tactics with its coronavirus-tracking app, BuzzFeed News reported.

Hugs to this

This cat does NOT look amused at the human dancing behind it. That judgmental stare at the camera is everything.

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